I read dozens of AI predictions every week
Most are forgotten within minutes.
Peter H. Diamandis' latest piece wasn't.
One idea kept me thinking long after I finished reading:
What happens when intelligence is no longer scarce?
According to the Stanford AI Index, the cost of AI intelligence has collapsed over the last two years.
Not by 10%.
Not by 50%.
By orders of magnitude.
If this trend continues, we are about to witness something unprecedented:
For most of human history, intelligence was the bottleneck.
The smartest people.
The best consultants.
The best engineers.
The best analysts.
That's how companies created advantage.
Now every entrepreneur is gaining access to capabilities that previously required armies of experts.
The implications are enormous.
Entire industries are built on the assumption that expertise remains scarce.
What if it doesn't?
Then the bottleneck shifts.
From thinking to doing.
From knowledge to execution.
From bits to atoms.
This was the most important insight for me:
As intelligence becomes abundant, the physical world becomes the constraint.
Manufacturing.
Construction.
Healthcare.
Energy.
Logistics.
The winners of the next decade may not be the companies that generate the best ideas.
They may be the companies that can move atoms as efficiently as AI moves bits.
And then there is robotics.
Optimus.
Figure.
Neo.
Unitree.
Whether the most aggressive forecasts materialize or not is almost irrelevant.
The direction is clear.
AI is making intelligence cheaper.
Robotics will make labor cheaper.
History suggests that when something becomes dramatically cheaper, the world reorganizes around it.
My takeaway:
You don't need to believe in AGI.
You don't need to believe every prediction from Elon Musk.
But if your strategy assumes that human cognition will remain expensive and scarce, it may be built on a rapidly shrinking foundation.
The question isn't whether this transformation is coming.
The question is whether it arrives gradually,
or all at once.
Verwandte Inhalte
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So zitieren: Szabo, Daniel (23. Juni 2026): „I read dozens of AI predictions every week“. szabo.digital, https://szabo.digital/beitraege/i-read-dozens-of-ai-predictions-every-week/